US Official Says India Trade Deal Is Over 90% Done

The United States and India are on the verge of concluding the first phase of their bilateral trade agreement, a senior US State Department official said on 26 September, describing the pact as “90-per-cent-plus there.” The remark, reported by Business Today, came a day after Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said the deal was “almost done and dusted.”

The comments set the stage for a meeting between Goyal and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on the sidelines of the G20 Trade Ministerial in Milwaukee on 30 September and 1 October. Both sides are signalling that the remaining gaps are narrow, though neither has committed to a signing date.

What is left to settle

The unnamed US official said negotiators were working through “just those final things,” and urged observers to “stay tuned.” On the Indian side, the main outstanding issue appears to be tariff treatment relative to competing exporters. Speaking at the Public Affairs Forum of India in New Delhi on 25 September, Goyal said India needs “the right comparable competitive advantage over our competitor.”

In practical terms, Indian exporters in labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, apparel, leather and marine products compete in the US market with suppliers from Vietnam, Bangladesh and other Asian economies. The tariff rate India secures relative to those countries will determine how much market share Indian goods can win or defend.

How the talks got here

The relationship has been through a turbulent 18 months. In August 2025, Washington imposed an additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods over India’s purchases of Russian oil, on top of a 25 per cent reciprocal duty. Those penalties were rolled back in February 2026, when the two countries announced a Phase 1 framework for a trade agreement.

Subsequent shifts in US tariff policy reopened some issues, and negotiators have since been working to convert the framework into a final text. Reports differ on the precise nature of an additional duty imposed on several Asian exporters in July 2026, and the final treatment of such measures is likely to be part of the closing negotiations.

A further risk sits in the background. The US Congress has passed legislation allowing tariffs of up to 100 per cent on large buyers of Russian oil. President Donald Trump has not indicated whether he intends to use that authority, but it remains a lever that could complicate the final stretch.

The trade numbers at stake

Bilateral trade in goods reached $140.76 billion in 2025-26, according to figures reported by Outlook Business. India’s exports to the US stood at $87.31 billion, slightly higher than $86.51 billion a year earlier, while imports from the US rose 17.16 per cent to $53.45 billion. As a result, India’s trade surplus with the US narrowed to $33.9 billion from $40.9 billion.

The shrinking surplus is itself part of the story. Washington has long pressed India to buy more American goods, including energy, aircraft and defence equipment, and the rise in imports gives Indian negotiators evidence of movement on that front.

Why it matters for business and investors

For Indian exporters, certainty is the biggest prize. Tariff swings over the past year have made it difficult for companies to price long-term contracts with American buyers. A signed agreement with clear, stable duty rates would allow exporters of engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, auto components, textiles and seafood to plan capacity and hiring with more confidence.

For US companies, the deal could open doors in agriculture, energy, medical devices and technology, where India’s tariffs and regulatory barriers have been long-standing irritants.

Markets would also welcome the news. The rupee has been under pressure from high oil prices and rising US yields. A trade breakthrough would improve sentiment towards Indian assets and could help revive US direct investment in India, which fell more than 76 per cent in the April–June quarter, according to DPIIT data.

Goyal has also pointed to India’s wider trade push. He said India has finalised nine trade agreements, covering markets that account for about 75 per cent of global GDP. A US deal would be the most commercially significant of them.

What happens next

The Milwaukee meeting on 30 September and 1 October is the next milestone. A signing of the first tranche, or at least a firm timeline, is possible, though neither side has promised it. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to visit India in October, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected at the G20 leaders’ summit in Florida in December, offering further opportunities to announce or build on an agreement.

Until the text is published, investors should treat the “90 per cent” remark as a sign of momentum rather than a done deal. The final 10 per cent in trade negotiations often contains the hardest issues.